On building maps of web pages with a cellular automaton

We present in this paper a clustering algorithm which is based on a cellular automaton and which aims at displaying a map of web pages. We describe the main principles of methods that build such maps, and the main principles of cellular automata. We show how these principles can be applied to the problem of web pages clustering: the cells, which are organized in a 2D grid, can be either empty or may contain a page. The local transition function of cells favors the creation of groups of similar states (web pages) in neighbouring cells. We then present the visual results obtained with our method on standard data as well as on sets of documents. These documents are thus organized into a visual map which eases the browsing of these pages1st IFIP International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cooperative Computing - Web OrganizationRed de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

CD4 cell responses to combination antiretroviral therapy in patients starting therapy at high CD4 cell counts

Objective: To examine CD4 cell responses to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in patients enrolled in the Australian HIV Observational Database who commenced cART at CD4 cell counts >350 cells per microliter. Methods: CD4 cell counts were modelled using random effects, repeated measurement models in 432 HIV-infected adults from Australian HIV Observational Database who commenced their first cART regimen and had a baseline CD4 count >350 cells per microliter. Using published AIDS and/or death incidence rates combined with the data summarized by time and predicted CD4 cell count, we calculated the expected reduction in risk of an event for different starting baseline CD4 strata. Results: Mean CD4 counts increased above 500 cells per microliter in all baseline CD4 strata by 12 months (means of 596, 717, and 881 cells/μL in baseline CD4 strata 351-500, 501-650, and >650 cells/μL, respectively) and after 72 months since initiating cART, mean CD4 cell counts (by increasing baseline CD4 strata) were 689, 746, 742 cells per microliter. The expected reduction in risk of mortality for baseline CD4 counts >650 cells per microliter relative to 351-500 cells per microliter was approximately 8%, an absolute risk reduction 0.33 per 1000 treated patient-years. Conclusions: Patients starting cART at high CD4 cell counts (>650 cells/μL) tend to maintain this immunological level over 6 years of follow-up. Patients starting from 351 to 500 CD4 cells per microliter achieve levels of >650 cells per microliter after approximately 3 years of cART. Initiating cART with a baseline CD4 count 501-650 or >650 cells per microliter relative to 351-500 cells per microliter indicated a minimal reduction in risk of AIDS incidence and/or death. Copyright © 2011 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real time . We calculate the partition function from where we obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes - Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and Subprime crisis (2008) - are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature from the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Evaluating anthropogenic threats to endangered killer whales to inform effective recovery plans

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record.Understanding cumulative effects of multiple threats is key to guiding effective management to conserve endangered species. The critically endangered, Southern Resident killer whale population of the northeastern Pacific Ocean provides a data-rich case to explore anthropogenic threats on population viability. Primary threats include: limitation of preferred prey, Chinook salmon; anthropogenic noise and disturbance, which reduce foraging efficiency; and high levels of stored contaminants, including PCBs. We constructed a population viability analysis to explore possible demographic trajectories and the relative importance of anthropogenic stressors. The population is fragile, with no growth projected under current conditions, and decline expected if new or increased threats are imposed. Improvements in fecundity and calf survival are needed to reach a conservation objective of 2.3% annual population growth. Prey limitation is the most important factor affecting population growth. However, to meet recovery targets through prey management alone, Chinook abundance would have to be sustained near the highest levels since the 1970s. The most optimistic mitigation of noise and contaminants would make the difference between a declining and increasing population, but would be insufficient to reach recovery targets. Reducing acoustic disturbance by 50% combined with increasing Chinook by 15% would allow the population to reach 2.3% growth

On building maps of web pages with a cellular automaton

We present in this paper a clustering algorithm which is based on a cellular automaton and which aims at displaying a map of web pages. We describe the main principles of methods that build such maps, and the main principles of cellular automata. We show how these principles can be applied to the problem of web pages clustering: the cells, which are organized in a 2D grid, can be either empty or may contain a page. The local transition function of cells favors the creation of groups of similar states (web pages) in neighbouring cells. We then present the visual results obtained with our method on standard data as well as on sets of documents. These documents are thus organized into a visual map which eases the browsing of these pages1st IFIP International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cooperative Computing - Web OrganizationRed de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Rapid covariance-based sampling of linear SPDE approximations in the multilevel Monte Carlo method

The efficient simulation of the mean value of a non-linear functional of the solution to a linear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with additive Gaussian noise is considered. A Galerkin finite element method is employed along with an implicit Euler scheme to arrive at a fully discrete approximation of the mild solution to the equation. A scheme is presented to compute the covariance of this approximation, which allows for rapid sampling in a Monte Carlo method. This is then extended to a multilevel Monte Carlo method, for which a scheme to compute the cross-covariance between the approximations at different levels is presented. In contrast to traditional path-based methods it is not assumed that the Galerkin subspaces at these levels are nested. The computational complexities of the presented schemes are compared to traditional methods and simulations confirm that, under suitable assumptions, the costs of the new schemes are significantly lower.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures; numerical simulations revised, implementation section added; To appear in Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods - MCQMC, Rennes, France, July 201

Walking through volcanic mud : the 2,100 year-old Acahualina footprints (Nicaragua) II: the Acahualina people, environmental conditions and motivation

We analyzed bare human footprints in Holocene tuff preserved in two pits in the Acahualinca barrio in the northern outskirts of Managua (Nicaragua). Lithology, volcanology, and age of the deposits are discussed in a companion paper (Schmincke et al. Bull Volcanol doi: 10.1007/s00445-008-0235-9, 2008). The footprint layer occurs within a series of rapidly accumulated basaltic–andesitic tephra that is regionally correlated to the Masaya Triple Layer Tephra. The people were probably trying to escape from a powerful volcanic eruption at Masaya Caldera 20 km farther south that occurred at 2.1 ka BP. We subdivided the swath of footprints, up to 5.6 m wide, in the northern pit (Pit I) into (1) a central group of footprints made by about six individuals, the total number being difficult to determine because people walked in each other’s footsteps one behind the other and (2) two marginal groups on either side of the central group with more widely spaced tracks. The western band comprises tracks of three adjacent individuals and an isolated single footprint farther out. The eastern marginal area comprises an inner band of deep footprints made by three individuals and, farther out, three clearly separated individuals. We estimate the total number of people as 15–16. In the southern narrow and smaller pit (Pit II), we recognize tracks of ca. 12 individuals, no doubt made by the same group. The group represented in both pits probably comprised male and female adults, teenagers and children based on differences in length of footprints and of strides and depth of footprints made in the soft wet ash. The smallest footprints (probably made by children) occur in the central group, where protection was most effective. The footprint layer is composed of a lower 5–15-cm thick, coarse-grained vesicle tuff capped by a medium to fine-grained tuff up to 3 cm thick. The surface on which the people walked was muddy, and the soft ash was squeezed up on the sides of the foot imprints and between toes. Especially, deep footprints are mainly due to local thickening of the water-rich ash, multiple track use, and differences in weight of individuals. The excellent preservation of the footprints, ubiquitous mudcracks, sharp and well-preserved squeeze-ups along the margins of the tracks and toe imprints, and the absence of raindrop impressions all suggest that the eruption occurred during the dry season. The people walked at a brisk pace, as judged from the tight orientation of the swath and the length of the strides. The directions of a major erosional channel in the overlying deposits that probably debouched into Lake Managua and the band of footprints are strictly parallel, indicating that people walked together in stride along the eastern margin of a channel straight toward the lake shore, possibly a site with huts and/or boats for protection and/or escape